GGMA Morning Brief: Tech stocks under pressure, Swiss CPI benign, Miran: Monetary policy too tight, NZ inflation expectations rise, China home prices keep declining, Today: US CPI & ECB speak

Main News · By Dr Günter Grimm · 13 February 2026

Good morning,

I hope all is well.

Here are the main overnight news and market movers:

Markets: US tech stocks under pressure on margin concerns

Global markets are slightly in the red this morning following Thursday's sharp Wall Street selloff, with investors now awaiting the January U.S. CPI report. The US Dollar is firmer amid risk-aversion. Precious metals are rebounding, while crude oil is soft after the IEA cut its demand forecast. Copper is only a little changed. Bitcoin is consolidating after yesterday’s decline.

Yesterday, the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite tumbled 2% after Cisco Systems reported an adjusted gross margin below estimates amid surging memory chip costs. That drove its shares down 12% and wiped out about $40 billion in market capitalisation. Apple dropped 5%. (RTRS) This morning, S&P 500 futures are off ~0.18%, Nasdaq-100 futures down ~0.21%, and Asian equities have pulled back broadly.

The Nifty 50 is trading around 25,584 (−0.87%), extending losses as IT stocks bore the brunt of the global tech selloff. Infosys dropped nearly 8% intraday to a 52-week low, while TCS, HCL Tech, and Wipro fell 5–6%. The Nifty Metal index also slid by more than 3%.

Light crude futures are roughly flat at $62.80 (−0.06%) after Thursday's sharp ~2.8% decline. The IEA's February Oil Market Report, released Thursday, cut its 2026 global demand growth forecast to 850,000 barrels per day — 80,000 bpd lower than its January estimate and well below OPEC's projection of 1.38 million bpd. The IEA also reiterated its call for a significant surplus of ~3.7 million bpd of excess oil in 2026. Supply disruptions from January's extreme winter weather in North America are expected to be temporary. (RTRS)

Swiss consumer prices fell by 0.1% in January

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.1% in January 2026 compared with the previous month to 99.9 points (December 2025 = 100). Inflation was +0.1% compared with the same month of the previous year. The 0.1% decrease compared with the previous month is due to several factors including lower prices for electricity and supplementary accommodation. Prices also decreased for air transport and for clothing and footwear, the latter due to seasonal sales. In contrast, prices for hotels and international package holidays increased, as did car insurance premiums. (FSO)

Fed’s Miran: Policy is tighter than thought, inflation not a problem

The Federal Reserve's current monetary-policy setting threatens U.S. economic growth that otherwise is being "underwritten" by a range of Trump administration policies, including tax cuts, Fed Governor Stephen Miran said on Thursday as he again laid out the case for more interest-rate cuts. "The biggest risk I think to the economy is that we're misconstruing just how tight monetary policy is," Miran said at an event at the Dallas Fed, adding that he does not think there is an inflation problem. "I have a hard time being concerned about inflation because really, really low shelter inflation can compensate for more inflation in other parts of the index," Miran said. (RTRS – Continue Reading) 

Hawkish Bank of Japan policymaker signals rate-hike chance 'this spring'

Japan is "very close" to durably achieving the central bank's 2% inflation target, hawkish board member Naoki Tamura said on Friday, signalling the chance of an interest rate hike in the coming months. Tamura also said current interest rates remain "considerably distant" from neutral for the economy, suggesting several more rate hikes could be expected before monetary policy begins to constrain growth. "The underlying inflation rate has been gradually increasing and is very close to becoming embedded at 2%," Tamura said in a speech. "It's quite possible that by this spring, our 2% inflation target can be judged to have been achieved," he said, underscoring his preference for a near-term interest rate hike. (RTRS)

Meanwhile, an economic adviser to Premier Sanae Takaichi, Etsuro Honda, said Japan's government does not necessarily need to select reflationists to fill seats opening on the central bank board, as the economy has exited deflation. The Bank of Japan may see scope to raise interest rates this year as rising inflation and bond yields suggest the economy is normalising, said Honda, who was also an economic aide of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. "Japan is out of deflation and faces the challenge of coming up with a growth strategy. It's in a different phase from Abe's era, when Japan was suffering from deflation. I think Takaichi understands this point," Honda said in an interview on Thursday. (RTRS)

JGB yields are down a couple of basis points this morning and are not reacting to these hawkish comments.

Trump plans to roll back some tariffs on steel and aluminium goods, the FT reports

U.S. President Donald Trump plans to scale back some tariffs on steel and aluminium goods, the Financial Times reported on Friday, citing people familiar with the matter. Officials in the Commerce Department and the U.S. Trade Representative’s office believe the tariffs are hurting consumers by raising prices for goods, including pie tins and food-and-drink cans, the FT report said.

RBNZ inflation expectations survey shows broad-based upward shift

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's latest inflation expectations survey shows a broad-based upward shift across all time horizons, signalling deteriorating inflation dynamics that may force the central bank to abandon its easing stance sooner than expected, according to Westpac.

China's used home prices decline more slowly

China’s second-hand home prices decreased at a slower rate in January, offering a glimmer of hope that the prolonged property crisis is easing. Resale home prices across 70 cities fell by 0.54% from December, the smallest decline in eight months, while new-home values dropped by 0.37%. Supportive measures for the property market have been implemented in recent months, and some analysts believe that if these policies persist, 2026 may see a “stabilisation or even a progressive recovery”, Bloomberg reports. Edward Chan, a director at S&P Global Ratings, has a more pessimistic take: “In our view, China’s nationwide home prices have not yet shown signs of stabilisation. On a year-on-year basis, the rate of price decline for primary and secondary homes quickened again in January across tier-one to tier-three cities”. (SCMP)

Today’s Macro Roadmap: US CPI, ECB speak

The US CPI release will be the main event today. Economists expect yearly core and headline inflation rates to moderate. However, some on Wall Street are preparing for a possible January inflation spike, as consumer prices have historically risen more sharply in January. A Boston Fed study shows that since 1985, seasonally adjusted January inflation has been 0.03 percentage points higher than in other months. Data monitored by software firm Adobe revealed sharp price rises for goods purchased online in January, possibly indicating that tariffs are being passed on. (WSJ)

Interestingly, nearly 90% of the economic burden of tariffs in 2025 was borne by U.S. companies and consumers, according to a new study by economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. About 94% of the tariff costs were passed through to US firms and consumers in the first eight months of the year, with pass-through still standing at 86% by November. The study found that higher costs in tariffs accelerated supply chain shifts away from China toward countries like Mexico and Vietnam. (BBG)

Goldman Sachs expects a contribution of 0.07 percentage point to core inflation from tariffs, with upward pressure possible on clothing, recreation, household furnishings, education and personal care. However, Goldman expects the headline CPI to come in a bit light at 2.4%, which could add to hopes that inflation is moderating. (CNBC)

In his February 10 Econostream interview, ECB’s de Guindos emphasised the euro area’s improved economic resilience, noting that inflation is converging toward the 2% target, with headline inflation at 1.7% as of January 2026. He stated ‘the current level of interest rates is appropriate,’ signalling a data-dependent approach without pre-committing to further cuts. He flagged geopolitical tensions and competitive pressures from China as key risks, though the broader economic momentum remains solid with unemployment at 6.2%. He co-hosted the ECB press conference on February 5 where rates were held unchanged, with risks characterised as broadly balanced between infrastructure spending upside and trade/geopolitical downside.

Good luck today, and feel free to ping me in the chat to discuss markets and views!