Market Wrap 13.05.2026 AM
Asia equities rebounded into the European open after Tuesday's hot US April CPI print — headline +0.6% MoM / +3.8% YoY (the highest since May 2023) and core +0.4% / +2.8%, every line above consensus, with swaps now pricing >50% odds of a Fed hike by next April. The pivotal session reversal came in Korea: the Kospi rose as Samsung pared $66bn of intraday market-cap loss when Seoul intervened in stalled labour talks, with SK Hynix to a record (+7.6%) and the AI-memory complex driving MSCI EM (+1.4%) and the Nikkei (+1.0%) higher.
Sentiment was further lifted by the surprise reversal on Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang now joining Trump's Beijing trip after Monday's exclusion — a clear olive branch on AI-chip access into a summit that Trump explicitly framed as 'trade not Iran', with the yuan hovering near a 3-year high (~6.79/USD) as traders position for an extension of the trade truce.
Within commodities the standout was Copper (+1.9%, top of the screen), with Industrial Metals (+1.1%) firm, while Energy gave back ground (sub-index -1.1%, WTI -1.4%) even as Iran's Kharg Island showed the first prolonged shipment halt of the war (VLCC floating storage swelled from 3 to 18 vessels).
Bonds remained the soft spot: Japan's 20y JGB yield reached 3.495%, the highest since 1997, with 30y +5bp to 3.86% and 10y +5bp to 2.59% as the OECD said the BoJ rate is likely to reach 2% by end-2027; UK gilts pushed to ~5.10% yesterday (post-2008 high) on the Starmer political crisis.
FX showed marginal dollar weakness on the equity rebound, with NZD soft (-0.2%). Noteworthy though that RBNZ Q2 inflation expectations climbed to 2.53% (the highest since 2023).
The Indian rupee sits at record lows even after India more than doubled gold/silver import duties to 15% to defend the currency. Crypto firmed (ETH +0.8%, BTC +0.5%).
What to watch: US PPI April at 14:30 CET is the binary catalyst — a hot print extends the hawkish reprice; ECB speakers (Lagarde 21:15, Lane London 21:00 amid Nagel having said hikes are 'increasingly likely'), BoE Mann, the BoC Summary of Deliberations 19:30 and Fed’s Kashkari at 19:15 CET round out a heavy CB day.
Asia equities rebounded into the European open after Tuesday's hot US April CPI print — headline +0.6% MoM / +3.8% YoY (the highest since May 2023) and core +0.4% / +2.8%, every line above consensus, with swaps now pricing >50% odds of a Fed hike by next April. The pivotal session reversal came in Korea: the Kospi rose as Samsung pared $66bn of intraday market-cap loss when Seoul intervened in stalled labour talks, with SK Hynix to a record (+7.6%) and the AI-memory complex driving MSCI EM (+1.4%) and the Nikkei (+1.0%) higher.
Sentiment was further lifted by the surprise reversal on Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang now joining Trump's Beijing trip after Monday's exclusion — a clear olive branch on AI-chip access into a summit that Trump explicitly framed as 'trade not Iran', with the yuan hovering near a 3-year high (~6.79/USD) as traders position for an extension of the trade truce.
Within commodities the standout was Copper (+1.9%, top of the screen), with Industrial Metals (+1.1%) firm, while Energy gave back ground (sub-index -1.1%, WTI -1.4%) even as Iran's Kharg Island showed the first prolonged shipment halt of the war (VLCC floating storage swelled from 3 to 18 vessels).
Bonds remained the soft spot: Japan's 20y JGB yield reached 3.495%, the highest since 1997, with 30y +5bp to 3.86% and 10y +5bp to 2.59% as the OECD said the BoJ rate is likely to reach 2% by end-2027; UK gilts pushed to ~5.10% yesterday (post-2008 high) on the Starmer political crisis.
FX showed marginal dollar weakness on the equity rebound, with NZD soft (-0.2%). Noteworthy though that RBNZ Q2 inflation expectations climbed to 2.53% (the highest since 2023).
The Indian rupee sits at record lows even after India more than doubled gold/silver import duties to 15% to defend the currency. Crypto firmed (ETH +0.8%, BTC +0.5%).
What to watch: US PPI April at 14:30 CET is the binary catalyst — a hot print extends the hawkish reprice; ECB speakers (Lagarde 21:15, Lane London 21:00 amid Nagel having said hikes are 'increasingly likely'), BoE Mann, the BoC Summary of Deliberations 19:30 and Fed’s Kashkari at 19:15 CET round out a heavy CB day.