Markets Briefing: Global markets opened the second half of the year on a cautious footing
Global markets opened the second half of the year on a cautious footing as a semiconductor-led pullback stalled the AI-driven equity rally and the dollar strengthened against all its G10 peers. A gauge of Asian chipmakers slipped, weighing on regional sentiment even as Nvidia server-assembly partner Hon Hai reported a bigger-than-expected jump in quarterly sales (BBG).
Across Asia, the tape was split, with Korea bearing the brunt: the Kospi fell 1.35% as SK Hynix slid ahead of its planned US listing and leveraged-ETF worries compounded the chip retreat, while Nikkei futures eased 0.76% (BBG). The Hang Seng bucked the trend, rising 0.88% on local tech and biopharma strength, and mainland shares firmed (BBG).
Regarding central banks, ECB Governing Council member Emmanuel Moulin said the central bank is in a "good position" after June's hike as the oil slump cools inflation, while Bundesbank's Nagel called the energy retreat a surprise and warned conditions remain volatile (BBG (FinPost)). New Zealand's RBNZ is the week's genuinely two-sided call: the NZIER shadow board split on Wednesday's decision while a Reuters poll of economists leaned toward a quarter-point hike (Org).
In currencies, the dollar firmed against every G10 counterpart. The yen was a standout laggard, with USD/JPY up 0.38% to 161.97 after Goldman Sachs cut its twelve-month forecast to a Street-bearish level, citing wide rate differentials and slow BoJ tightening (BBG). The Swiss franc weakened 0.32% and the Australian dollar eased 0.12% as domestic data cooled.
In rates, Japanese government bond yields extended their climb, with the 10-year JGB up about 4 basis points to 2.812% on renewed focus on Japan's fiscal trajectory and the BoJ's gradual normalisation (WSJ) — the carry-versus-fiscal tension that also weighs on the yen. Treasuries firmed by contrast, the US 10-year yield easing about 1.6 basis points to 4.469% as the recovering oil supply cooled inflation fears (WSJ), while Australian 10-year yields fell around 3 basis points to 4.788%.
In commodities, OPEC+ agreed in principle to a fifth straight monthly quota increase as Hormuz tanker traffic recovered (WSJ). The building surplus is undercutting Iran's negotiating leverage, though crude steadied with WTI little changed on the session (WSJ). Gold eased 0.54% to about 4,153 after a three-day gain, holding near record territory on Fed-hold expectations (BBG), while copper bucked the softer complex with a 0.73% advance as rate-hike bets faded (BBG). In crypto, Bitcoin slipped 0.76% to about 63,100, drifting lower with the cautious risk tone.
On the data front, Australia's Melbourne Institute inflation gauge fell for a second consecutive month and ANZ-Indeed job ads slipped, pointing to a labour market cooling at the margin (Reuters). Hong Kong's S&P Global PMI rose further into expansion — its strongest reading since February — a rare bright spot as regional gauges soften.
On the corporate tape, SK Hynix's US listing dominated chip-sector attention, EasyJet agreed in principle to a multibillion-pound takeover from Castlelake, and Samsung Electronics plans to raise third-quarter DRAM prices sharply (BBG).
Today, German factory orders will be released at 08:00 CET, Swiss unemployment follows at 09:00, construction PMIs and Sentix investor confidence fill the mid-morning, and the euro-area double release of May retail sales and producer prices lands at 11:00. The afternoon belongs to North America — the final S&P Global services PMI at 15:45 CET and the ISM services survey at 16:00 are the session's data pivot, with the Bank of Canada's two pre-decision surveys at 16:30 the main event for the loonie ahead of the 15 July meeting. The evening carries an unusually crowded central-bank slate: an ECB-hosted policy panel in Rome brings Fed Governor Waller and ECB board member Schnabel together at 17:00 CET, President Lagarde appears in Paris at 18:00, the Bank of England's Catherine Mann speaks in Newcastle at 18:45, and a Philip Lane text closes the day at 20:30. You can find a more detailed report here: https://ggma-app.com/public-article/129
Time Stamp: 07:28 CET