Tomorrow’s Macro Roadmap: ECB speak / US jobless claims & trade balance / Japan labour market & Tokyo CPI
Today’s Macro Roadmap: ECB speak / US jobless claims & trade balance / Japan labour market & Tokyo CPI
In the US, jobless claims are expected to increase slightly. Residual seasonality may have depressed the series, according to some analysts, but it should begin to increase now.
Advance data on merchandise trade are also due and have not been released since the government shutdown, leaving a narrower view of international trade flows than usual, according to Wells Fargo. Since Liberation Day, imports have generally remained weak, but with the recent surge in retail sales, a recovery could be on the horizon. However, it's still unclear when this rebound will occur, as many businesses are postponing orders until they have greater certainty about tariffs. Wells Fargo expects the trade deficit to narrow slightly to $23 billion in November. Looking beyond monthly fluctuations, the ongoing reduction in the trade deficit is largely a correction after it widened significantly at the start of 2025. The full impact on trade patterns and global supply chains in this higher tariff landscape remains uncertain. Pay attention to the Supreme Court’s ruling on tariffs imposed under IEEPA, as it could be significant.
In Japan, analysts expect the January Tokyo CPI to continue its decelerating trend, reflecting a gradual slowdown in food inflation and a decline in energy inflation, driven by government subsidies. The series is highly correlated with the Nationwide CPI measure.
Labour market data is also due in Japan. Economists expect a stable unemployment rate. I would watch out for the job openings-to-applicants ratio, as this measure tends to lead the unemployment rate at times.