Tomorrow's Macro Roadmap: Japan GDP & wages / China trade balance / Norway CPI / US NFIB, ADP & existing home sales
Japan GDP Final Q4 (00:50 CET)
The second estimate of Japan’s Q4 2025 GDP is widely expected to be revised sharply higher, with consensus at 1.2% q/q saar versus the initial estimate of 0.2%. Analysts expect upward revisions to business capex after the MoF corporate survey indicated capex rose 7.3% year-on-year, excluding software and public investment. The revision matters for BoJ policy: a stronger growth print supports the case for the next rate hike, although the oil shock and yen depreciation are complicating the picture.
China Trade Balance JAN-FEB (04:00 CET)
China’s combined January-February trade data is expected to show continued export resilience, further aided by front-loading ahead of IEEPA tariffs. Some analysts cite the RatingDog manufacturing PMI readings and strong Korea-to-China export flows as leading indicators for strong export growth. Also, year-to-date port cargo throughput growth remained strong. The key risk is whether the Strait of Hormuz closure disrupts China’s energy imports, which could distort the trade balance going forward.
Norway CPI FEB (08:00 CET)
Norwegian inflation is expected to decline sharply in February due to base effects, but the surge in oil prices creates significant upside risk to the path ahead. The decline is primarily due to base effects as service prices rose sharply in February 2025, according to analysts. Also, temporary factors likely boosted prices in January (airfares, clothing), which could unwind, while krone appreciation should start weighing on goods inflation.
On the policy maker front, the Fed enters its pre-FOMC blackout period ahead of the March 18-19 meeting.