Tomorrow's Macro Roadmap: PMI Day / ECB, BOE & BOC speak
Tuesday is a global flash-PMI day: the June preliminary readings sweep from Australia and Japan overnight through France (09:15 CET), Germany (09:30) and the euro area (10:00) to the UK (10:30) and the US (15:45). The PMIs are the week's first broad test of whether the US–Iran MOU and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz are lifting confidence and easing the price pressure the energy shock created — though most of the survey window pre-dates the deal. Second-tier data are Japan's BoJ Core CPI, France business confidence, the US Richmond Fed survey.
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem speaks at 15:25 CET (09:25 ET) in Paris, to the France-Canada Chamber of Commerce and Paris Europlace on 'the global financial system' coming the morning after May Canada CPI and roughly three weeks before the mid-July BoC decision. The Bank has held, and the 10 June opening statement framed the Council's deliberations around incoming data and global/trade uncertainty — consistent with the consensus view of a long hold through 2026. The Paris venue and topic tilt toward financial-stability and global-architecture themes rather than a near-term rate signal, but any aside on the energy shock or second-round inflation will be parsed for hawkish drift.
ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane speaks at 10:30 CET. He is the intellectual anchor of the ECB's response to the energy shock — he has argued that responding to intermediate inflation deviations is 'a judgement call,' characterised the current shock as 'mid-sized,' and called for a 'measured' response, while flagging that inflation will likely hold above 3% through year-end. Coming after the 11 June 25bp hike, his tone is the calibrating, less-hawkish counterweight to the ECB's outright hawks — watched for whether 'measured' still implies another hike this summer.
BoE external member Alan Taylor — the committee's clearest dove — speaks at 15:55 CET. He voted with the majority to hold on 18 June and has made the strongest case for patience, arguing that stripping out the direct energy effect would have left CPI near target in April, framing the problem as imported energy rather than embedded domestic pricing, and stressing the economy's slack and already-restrictive stance.
BoE external member Swati Dhingra, the committee's most consistent dove, speaks at 19:30 CET. She voted to hold in June, judging that the likelihood of extreme outcomes had receded while flagging uncertainty about the size of the global commodity shock; her long-standing view is that the shocks driving UK inflation are largely external and will fade, leaving her predisposed toward cuts once the energy shock passes.
US bill and 2-Year note auctions round up the session.