Tomorrow's Macro Roadmap: RBNZ, Fed, BoC & ECB speak / EZ & Swiss mfg. PMIs
Monday is dominated by manufacturing PMIs (final readings across the euro-area cluster plus Switzerland, India and Sweden) and central bank speakers.
ECB policymakers' comments will be scrutinised for hints of a rate hike in June. In his last speeches, ECB’s Villeroy said the next ECB rate move is "highly likely" to be upwards, but timing is too early to call. He stressed that the euro area is not facing a 2022 repeat despite a Middle East energy shock — March HICP rose to 2.5% on energy (+4.9%), but core remained contained at 2.3% (1.3% in France). Pushed back on market over-interpretation of hike timing. ECB Vice-President De Guindos urged prudence in his last speech: "keep a cool head and analyse the data in a highly uncertain environment." Reminded that monetary policy cannot prevent the initial price impact of supply shocks. At the IMF Spring Meetings, ECB’s Nagel said oil-price volatility had pushed the ECB "between our baseline and our adverse scenario," with inflation expected near 2% but uncertainty potentially forcing a reaction if prices overshoot. Earlier 2026 speeches stressed not to loosen policy too soon and warned the inflation fight "isn't over yet." ECB’s Šimkus pushed back against an April rate hike, saying conditions did not warrant tightening at the 30-Apr GC meeting. Declined to commit on June, warning that locking in guidance would hold policymakers "hostage" to outdated data. Door left open to tightening later in 2026 if upside inflation risks crystallise.
In his last speech, Fed policy maker Williams flagged the Iran/Middle East conflict as feeding into higher prices and slower growth, calling "inflation crosscurrents, mixed labour-market signals and Middle East uncertainty" the defining gravitational forces. Estimated tariffs are adding 0.5-0.75pp to PCE inflation (most recent print 2.8%), but he expects those effects to wane. Outlook: real GDP 2.0-2.5% in 2026, inflation 2.75-3.0% before drifting back to 2% target in 2027; unemployment 4.25-4.50%. Adopted a "wait and see" posture on rates.
Good luck, and feel free to ping me in the chat to discuss markets and views!