Tomorrow's Macro Roadmap: Swiss sight deposits / Buba report / IMF meetings / ECB & BOE speak / BOJ’s Ueda / US existing home sales
Monday is a light data day but heavy on central bank speakers (4 speeches: ECB Guindos in Madrid 14:15, BoE Taylor 15:00, Bundesbank Balz in Schwerin 18:00, BoJ Ueda tentative). China monetary aggregates (M2, New Yuan Loans, Total Social Financing) are tentative and could drop at any time.
In Switzerland, the SNB will release its update on sight deposits for last week at 10:00 CET. They have risen for four weeks in a row now. However, they are far from a perfect proxy for SNB interventions in foreign exchange markets and are influenced by other factors, but remain worth monitoring. In its latest statement, the central bank said that
"in view of international developments, we are increasingly prepared to intervene in the foreign exchange market. We stand ready to intervene in the foreign exchange market to curb a rapid and excessive appreciation of the Swiss franc, which would jeopardise price stability."
US home sales are expected to decline as mortgage rates have risen, according to some analysts. Pending home sales have ticked higher, though.
In his last speech, ECB policymaker de Guindos framed the Iran/energy shock as a material upside risk to inflation, explicitly saying the ECB is “ready to raise interest rates if necessary” while insisting spillovers are “contained” so far.
In his last presentation, BOE policymaker Taylor argued that the UK is acutely sensitive to natural gas and oil prices; the Persian Gulf energy shock has pushed expected CPI inflation to ~3.5% vs 2.1% previously forecast. He sees a high bar to hiking rates, preferring to hold steady until the size and duration of the energy shock become clearer. Stresses central banks must maintain “focus and discipline” on price stability. Before the shock, disinflation was nearly complete, with inflation at the target expected by mid-2026.
BOJ Governor Ueda has consistently signalled the BoJ’s intention to keep raising the benchmark rate, having hiked to the highest in 30 years in December 2025. The March hold was driven by uncertainty over the Iran conflict, but he explicitly left the door open for an April hike (next meeting 27-28 April with the quarterly outlook). “We will hold a policy meeting in March and April, so we would like to reach a decision by scrutinising data available by then”, Ueda said in an interview.
Good luck, and feel free to ping me in the chat to discuss markets and views!