Tomorrow's Macro Roadmap: AU Capex, BOJ, Fed & ECB speak, US jobless claims
In Australia, Westpac forecasts a -0.5% decline vs consensus of flat private capital expenditure for Q4, arguing that Q3’s strong 6.4% gain was significantly driven by data centre equipment and civil aircraft purchases that should unwind in Q4. “Weaker capital goods imports through the quarter, alongside a slowdown in short-term expected capex growth, point to a decline.” However, the forward-looking Estimate 4 for 2025/26 capex plans remains consistent with robust 8.2% nominal and 6.1% real growth, so the structural investment pipeline is intact.
The RBA Bulletin will be released today — watch for any updated commentary on the investment outlook given the RBA’s recent hawkish turn (rate hike to 3.85% in February on inflation persistence).
US initial jobless claims are expected to edge higher to 215k from 206k the prior week. Analysts note the series had risen since mid-January, likely due to Winter Storm Fern and subsequent inclement weather, before the latest print reversed that rise. The prior reading — which covered the February payroll survey week — was lower than the corresponding week in 2025, “a positive message for the next employment report.” Continuing claims have been inching up after declining through mid-January, but the four-week average has moved sideways at recent lows.