Tomorrow's Macro Roadmap: ECB, BOE & Fed speak, US ADP, house prices & consumer confidence
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence index is the day's marquee data release. Consensus expects a recovery to 87.3 from January's 84.5, which fell below pandemic levels to the lowest reading since May 2014. Analysts note that some of this decline could have been due to escalating headlines about Greenland and European tariffs, which could fall away in today’s report. However, the labour market differential — a key leading indicator — dropped to a cycle low of 3.1% from 8.4% in December, signalling growing consumer anxiety about employment prospects. A miss here would reinforce concerns about the consumer spending outlook; a beat would suggest the January collapse was noise.
In the US, S&P will publish the Case-Shiller home price index for October at 15:00 CET. The consensus expects a 0.1% point increase in the annual growth rate.
This is an exceptionally heavy day for central bank communications, with 11 scheduled appearances spanning the Fed, ECB, and BoE. The highlight is the BoE Treasury Select Committee hearing (15:15 CET) where Governor Bailey and Chief Economist Pill will testify on the February Monetary Policy Report — notably after a contentious 5-4 hold vote. On the Fed side, Governor Waller (15:15 CET) is the most market-sensitive speaker following his January dissent for a 25bp cut, though his Tuesday topic is "Technology" rather than monetary policy. Governor Cook (15:30 CET) speaks on "AI and Productivity." Bostic (15:00 CET) delivers what may be his final public appearance before retiring on Feb 28. ECB President Lagarde (18:45 CET) appears at a panel in Frankfurt, two days after declaring on CBS that she is "not done" amid early-departure rumors.
The key tension at the TSC will be the Bailey-Pill divergence. Bailey is cautiously dovish: he expects a "sharp drop" in inflation over coming months and sees "scope for some further easing". He noted that "risks from inflation persistence appear to have continued to reduce." Pill is the MPC's leading hawk: he explicitly said rates at 3.75% are "a little bit too low" and called prior cuts an "error." He pegged underlying UK inflation at approximately 2.5% — above target — and argued that any near-term dip in headline inflation would be temporary. With the February vote split at 5-4 (hold vs cut), MPs will press on whether the March meeting is live for a cut, the fall in services inflation from ~5.0% to 4.4%, the significance of unemployment rising to 5.2%, and risks from global trade uncertainty.
Regarding the Fed, Goolsbee remains the most dovish voice on the Committee. On Feb 17, he said "several more rate cuts can happen in 2026" if inflation proves transitory and gets on a path back to 2%. However, he acknowledged services inflation is "not tamed" at 3.2% annualized and core PCE has "basically been stalled out at 3%." He wants 6-8 months of lower inflation data before acting — making his dovishness conditional rather than unconditional.
Waller is the most market-sensitive speaker on Tuesday. He dissented at the January FOMC meeting, voting for a 25bp cut — believing labor market risks outweigh inflation concerns. In his NABE speech yesterday (23 Feb), he argued for "looking through" tariff effects, estimating underlying inflation near 2%, and flagged serious concerns about labor market quality: 2025 was "the weakest year for job creation in decades outside of a recession." He described the March rate decision as "close to a coin flip" depending on February labor data. His Tuesday topic is Technology/Fintech, not monetary policy, so market impact may be limited unless Q&A strays to rates.
Bostic endorsed the January FOMC hold and has taken an increasingly hawkish posture in his final weeks. He warned that "more rate cuts could reignite inflation and hurt Fed credibility" and said inflation has been "stuck in the high 2s, low 3s range" for two years. He sees "maybe one or two" more cuts to reach neutral but believes there is "little to suggest price pressures will dissipate before mid- to late 2026." As a retiring president, his remarks may be more candid than usual.