Tomorrow's Macro Roadmap: ECB, Fed, RBA & BOE speak / Spain inflation / EZ sentiment survey
Monday opens a data-heavy week, but the day itself is light. The main event is the start of the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, where President Lagarde gives the opening remarks (around 19:30 CET). RBA Assistant Governor Kent delivers a speech, 'Additional Monetary Policy Tools: Reflections and a New Framework', in Sydney (01:30 CET). BoE Chief Economist Pill joins a panel at the Central Bank of Uzbekistan's monetary-policy dialogue in Tashkent (07:00 CET).
The first hard data is the euro-area inflation run: Spain's flash CPI for June (09:00 CET), ahead of Germany, France and Italy on Tuesday and the euro-area flash on Wednesday. Around them sit the euro-area Economic Sentiment survey (11:00 CET), euro-area money and credit (10:00 CET), Japan's May retail sales overnight (01:50 CET) and the US Dallas Fed survey (16:30 CET).
The week's real events come later: the euro-area flash CPI on Wednesday, and a front-loaded US labour-market run — JOLTS job openings on Tuesday, the ISM manufacturing survey and ADP on Wednesday, then the June jobs report on Thursday, brought forward a day because Friday is the Independence Day market holiday.
ECB President Christine Lagarde gives the opening remarks of the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra at around 19:30 CET, launching the annual three-day conference (29 June – 1 July; theme 'Shaping Europe's future: innovation, growth and stability'). The Forum's policy panel, at which Lagarde speaks again, is on Wednesday. At her most recent appearance, the European Parliament's ECON hearing on 22 June, Lagarde said inflation had risen to 3.2% due to the energy shock, while longer-term expectations remained anchored near 2%. She set out a graduated approach — looking through small, temporary shocks but responding to larger ones — and warned that after 2022–23, price- and wage-setting may be more sensitive to new shocks, keeping the ECB data-dependent with no pre-commitment on the rate path.
RBA Assistant Governor Christopher Kent delivers a speech titled 'Additional Monetary Policy Tools: Reflections and a New Framework' in Sydney at 01:30 CET. The RBA held the cash rate at 4.35% in June, after three hikes, with a hawkish bias — warning inflation is 'too high' and that it would raise rates further if required. In his most recent speech, 'Reassessing Australian Financial Conditions' (26 March), Kent argued financial conditions had become more accommodative through 2025 — on strong credit growth, narrowing lending spreads and a firmer Australian dollar — which, alongside emerging inflation pressure, supported the RBA's February and March rate rises. He judged conditions to be around neutral
Japan's May retail sales are released at 01:50 CET. Sales rose 2.1% year-on-year in April (1.3% on the month), and consensus looks for 3.2% year-on-year in May (3.1% on the month). Analysts split on the read: one looks for a soft monthly print on payback from April's auto-tax-driven boost, partly offset by strong home-appliance demand, while another sees the annual rate firming.
Spain's flash CPI for June is released at 09:00 CET — the first June inflation reading for the euro area. The national rate was 3.2% year-on-year in May, with consensus at 3.2%, and the EU-harmonised (HICP) rate was 3.6% (core 2.9%). Analysts see the harmonised rate around 3.4%, with one house higher at 3.7% on strong holiday and airfare prices and a reversal of energy-related VAT and tax subsidies.
The euro-area Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for June is released at 11:00 CET. It was 93.5 in May, and consensus looks for 94.3. Final consumer confidence is seen at −17.7 (from −19), services sentiment at 2.5 and industrial at −7.8. A further improvement would reinforce the firmer June PMIs, and the survey's selling-price component and inflation expectations are the ECB-relevant detail.