Tomorrow's Macro Roadmap: ECB, BOC & Fed speak / Swiss sight deposits / US ISM mfg.
ECB’s Schnabel will speak at 02:10 CET. She made some hawkish remarks recently and said that 'given the size and persistence of the current shock, looking through is no longer an option in my view… from today's perspective, a rate hike in June will be needed.' She said inflation has already risen to 3% and, according to market expectations, is set to rise further toward 4% by the end of the year, and pointed to a sharp decline in confidence indicators, especially among consumers.
Fed’s Waller will speak to today at 14:30 CET. He has recently moved from the dovish to the more hawkish camp. On 29 May he said he would support a rate hike if inflation expectations become unanchored, citing the rise in medium-term expectations since the energy shock — hardening his 22 May Frankfurt lecture, where he'd already said the next move is 'just as likely to be a hike as a cut.' This is a full reversal of his early-2026 stance (he dissented at the January FOMC for a 25bp cut, judging inflation near-target and labour risks dominant).
On the data front, the US ISM manufacturing survey for May will the key release today. The consensus expects a slight improvement in the headline number. Also important to watch will be the prices paid component which is expected to increase as well.
In Switzerland, the SNB will release its update on sight deposits for last week at 10:00 CET. They are far from a perfect proxy for SNB interventions in foreign exchange markets and are influenced by other factors, yet they remain worth monitoring. In its latest statement, the central bank said that
"in view of international developments, we are increasingly prepared to intervene in the foreign exchange market. We stand ready to intervene in the foreign exchange market to curb a rapid and excessive appreciation of the Swiss franc, which would jeopardise price stability."
Good luck, and feel free to ping me in the chat to discuss markets and views!