Tomorrow's Macro Roadmap: Swiss consumer confidence & sight deposits, ECB, BOE & Fed speak
In Switzerland, the consumer confidence report will be released at 09:00 CET. Historically, the headline figure has shown a strong correlation with real GDP growth and may offer insights into forthcoming economic trends. The subcomponents related to the labour market and anticipated price changes provide valuable information relevant to unemployment and inflation rates, respectively.
The SNB will release its update on sight deposits for last week at 10:00 CET. They are far from a perfect proxy for SNB interventions in foreign exchange markets and are influenced by other factors, yet they remain worth monitoring. In its latest statement, the central bank reiterated its willingness to intervene as necessary.
There are also several central bank policymakers scheduled to speak. Here is an overview of their last speeches or comments.
In a February 5, 2026, podcast, ECB President Christine Lagarde talks about how the Governing Council decided to keep all three key ECB interest rates unchanged, reaffirming that inflation should stabilise at the 2% target in the medium term. She notes that the euro area economy remains resilient in a challenging global environment, supported by low unemployment, solid private sector balance sheets, public spending on defence and infrastructure, and past rate cuts, though uncertainty persists due to trade policy concerns and geopolitical tensions. Lagarde emphasises the ECB's data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach, stating that future rate decisions will be based on the inflation outlook, incoming economic data, underlying inflation dynamics, and the strength of monetary policy transmission, with no pre-commitment to any specific rate path.
In this January 30, 2026 dissent statement, Fed Governor Christopher Waller explains his vote to cut the policy rate by 25 basis points, arguing that monetary policy remains too restrictive despite three 2025 rate cuts. He highlights severe labour market weakness, noting that 2025 payroll growth was just 600,000 jobs—versus a 1.9 million ten-year average—and that the figure will likely be revised to near-zero job growth, while unemployment has risen and employers are planning layoffs for 2026. Though inflation is elevated due to tariffs, Waller contends the Fed should "look through" these temporary effects since inflation expectations are anchored and core inflation runs close to the 2% target, making the current policy rate (50-75 basis points above the 3% neutral estimate) inappropriately high given labour market risks.
On February 3, 2026, Fed Governor Miran gave an interview to Fox Business Network reiterating his support for substantial rate cuts, stating he anticipates "more than just a single percentage point in rate cuts throughout the year" and characterising existing monetary policy as excessively restrictive. Notably, Miran's term as a Fed governor expired at the end of January 2026, but he continues serving in a holdover capacity until a successor is confirmed. President Trump announced former central banker Kevin Warsh as his selection to lead the Federal Reserve.