Tomorrow's Macro Roadmap: Japan labour market & Tokyo CPI / RBA minutes / China PMIs / UK GDP / EZ inflation / US home prices, JOLTS & Chicago PMI / Fed speak
RBA Meeting Minutes (02:30 CET) — The minutes from the March meeting will provide more colour around the 5-4 split vote to hike rates.
Euro Area Flash HICP — March (11:00 CET)
Headline inflation is expected to surge by ~0.8pp to 2.7% YoY, driven by a massive energy pass-through from the Middle East conflict. Weekly fuel prices through March already point to a large inflation boost. The key question is whether core inflation also accelerates or continues to moderate.
Japan Tokyo CPI — March (01:30 CET)
Tokyo CPI is a leading indicator for nationwide inflation. ING notes that rising gasoline prices should be offset by government subsidies for utilities. Strong Shunto wage negotiations support the wage-price feedback loop.
US CB Consumer Confidence — March (16:00 CET)
Consumer confidence is expected to decline further from 91.2, weighed down by the Middle East conflict, surging energy prices, and equity market weakness. Scotiabank suggests confidence “may be a bit more resilient than the UofM consumer sentiment reading” since the Conference Board is more driven by labour markets than gas prices. Of particular interest will be the labour market differential, which correlates reasonably well with the unemployment rate.
US JOLTs Job Openings — February (16:00 CET)
Job openings are expected to decline. Watch the quits rate for signs of wage growth or weakness.