Tomorrow's Macro Roadmap: Trump speech / India PMI / Swiss inflation / ECB & Fed speak / US job cuts & jobless claims
Trump Iran address aftermath — The dominant event risk heading into Thursday. Trump addressed the nation at 9pm ET Wednesday (03:00 CET Thursday) with an “important update” on Iran. Market reaction will depend on whether he announced concrete de-escalation steps or simply reiterated the 2-3 week timeline.
ECB Economic Bulletin (10:00 CET) — The ECB’s regular analytical publication will provide the Governing Council’s latest assessment of economic and financial conditions.
US Trade Balance — February (14:30 CET)
The standout US release of the day, with an exceptionally wide forecast range. The trade deficit is expected to widen from -$54.5bn in January, but banks disagree dramatically on the magnitude.
US Initial Jobless Claims — week ending 28 March (14:30 CET)
Claims remain stable at historically low levels so far. The consensus expects a small uptick. Continuing claims are also important to watch.