Tomorrow's Macro Roadmap: US NFIB, ADP, retail sales & ECI, Fed & Buba speak, API inventories
Today brings a densely packed US data session headlined by December retail sales, the Q4 Employment Cost Index, and December import prices, all due at 14:30 CET. The day also features the January NFIB Business Optimism Index (12:00 CET) and three central bank speeches in the afternoon.
The consensus expects retail sales growth to slow in December, while the Chicago Fed CARTS indicator points to solid growth.
The employment cost index (ECI), which has a decent correlation with the PCE core services index, is expected to rise 0.8% qoq, matching Q3’s pace. If realised, the year-over-year rate would edge down to 3.5% from 3.6% — the slowest pace in the current cycle, though still above pre-pandemic levels of approximately 2.5–3.0%.
Hammack has described the current funds rate as ‘only barely restrictive, if at all’ and warned against premature easing, projecting inflation around 3% by year-end. Logan opposed October’s rate cut and emphasised inflation remains ‘too high, taxing the budgets of businesses and families.’ Their remarks will be closely watched for any shift given recent weaker labour data — particularly the sharp JOLTS decline and softening ADP readings.